In leadership, the ability to make informed decisions is crucial, as the repercussions of those decisions can ripple across generations. The ongoing challenges in the Middle East are a great example of what happens when leaders act without fully understanding the complexities of the situations they face. I would argue that the turmoil in this region is not merely the result of current events but the outcome of uninformed decisions made decades ago by leaders who failed to consider the long-term consequences of their actions.

This history offers valuable lessons for today’s leaders: the importance of examining the root causes of issues and thoroughly assessing the potential impacts of their initiatives. Understanding these principles is key to avoiding short-sighted decisions and fostering enduring success. So, today, using the Middle East as our example, I have the unique pleasure of providing both a history lesson and a leadership lesson. Just remember what I always say: do we want to be right, or do we want to be accurate?

Indeed, the Middle East, a region marked by centuries of rich history and cultural diversity, is today synonymous with conflict, instability, and geopolitical tension. The question we have to begin with is, what happened? Media narratives often focus on (or distract us with) current events, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, civil wars, and the rise of extremist groups. As a result, the people are divided accordingly, as their focus largely hinges on the information they choose to examine. However, regardless of the ‘side,’ these headlines rarely share the deeper historical roots that have shaped the region’s turmoil. If you truly want to understand what is happening in the Middle East today, then we must step back and examine the events preceding World War II and the significant role played by Western powers in shaping the region’s modern landscape.

The Ottoman Empire: A Pillar of Stability

The Ottoman Empire, which spanned from approximately 1300 to 1920, was a dominant force in the Middle East and beyond. For over six centuries, it provided a relatively stable political order across vast territories, encompassing diverse ethnic, religious, and cultural groups. The empire’s longevity was due, in part, to its flexible approach to governance, which allowed various regions and communities a degree of autonomy while maintaining overall cohesion under the central authority of the Sultan. Perhaps that is yet another demonstration of the power of Self-Determination Theory and having an overall vision.

However, by the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire began to experience a gradual decline. Internal strife, economic challenges, and, more pointedly, external pressures from European powers weakened its hold on its territories. Yet, despite these challenges, the empire remained a significant stabilizing force in the Middle East. That is, until its collapse in the aftermath of World War I. So, what happened?

The Treaty of Versailles and the Redrawing of Borders

World War I was a turning point for the Middle East. The war brought about the collapse of empires, including the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires. This led to the redrawing of borders across Europe and the Middle East. What happened? The Treaty of Versailles happened. Signed in 1919, it is often remembered for imposing harsh reparations on Germany. However, the truth is that its impact extended far beyond Europe.

The treaty and subsequent agreements, such as the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916, dismantled the Ottoman Empire and carved up its territories into new nation-states – whether anyone living there wanted them or not. These borders were drawn with little regard for the ethnic, religious, and tribal realities of the region – lines that most Westerners either didn’t or wouldn’t understand anyway. Instead, they reflected the interests of colonial powers, particularly Britain and France, who sought to expand their influence in the Middle East.

What these Western leaders didn’t understand was that the arbitrary nature of these borders literally sowed the seeds of future conflict. Regions with diverse and often competing groups were forced into artificial states, setting the stage for sectarian tensions, nationalist movements, and ongoing regional rivalries. The Middle East, once held together under Ottoman rule, was now a patchwork of fragile states comprised of various groups of people, each grappling with internal divisions and external pressures. Of course, the Western powers either didn’t see it or didn’t care about what they were really doing so long as it benefited them.

Important Note: We should remember that the discovery of vast oil reserves in the region heightened the strategic and economic importance of the Middle East for these colonial powers. For clarity, the Sykes-Picot Agreement and The League of Nations mandates were largely influenced by the desire to control and exploit the region’s oil resources.

Western Influence and the Legacy of Colonialism

The dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, which the Western nations were largely responsible for, left a power vacuum in the Middle East, which Britain and France were quick to fill. Through a series of mandates and protectorates, these colonial powers imposed their own political and economic structures on the region, reshaping its landscape to align with Western ideals and interests.

One of the most significant consequences of this period was the establishment of ‘Mandatory Palestine,’ a British-administered territory that would later become the site of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and fuel an interesting alliance between Arabs and Nazis. Between 1920 and 1948, the Jewish population in this area grew significantly, fueled by immigration and land purchases, laying the groundwork for the eventual creation of the State of Israel in 1948. What many don’t seem to know is that prior to 1920, Israelis already lived in a province known as the ‘Mutasarrifate of Jerusalem,’ which was an administrative division of the Ottoman Empire and a tiny little section of land – not too dissimilar from what we now know as Gaza. For clarity, prior to the establishment of the Mutasarrifate of Jerusalem in 1872, the Jewish presence in the city of Jerusalem and surrounding areas had already been continuous, though fluctuating in size due to various historical events, from ancient Israelite times through successive empires (Babylonian, Persian, Roman, Byzantine, and Islamic).

Regardless, the Western powers’ complete disregard for the region’s existing social fabric and their imposition of foreign governance systems exacerbated tensions and fostered resentment. Today, you see the result on the news every week, and people protest in favor of one side or the other without acknowledging the root. Indeed, the legacy of those decisions is still felt today, as many of the conflicts in the Middle East can be traced back to the problems established during this period.

The Ongoing Impact: Sectarianism, Nationalism, and Regional Rivalries

The consequences of Western intervention in the Middle East are vast and far-reaching. The arbitrary borders drawn by colonial powers have contributed to ongoing sectarianism, with groups such as Sunnis, Shias, Kurds, and others finding themselves divided by national boundaries or marginalized within their own countries. Of course, regional rivalries, such as those between Saudi Arabia and Iran, can also be traced back to the power dynamics established during the colonial era. These rivalries are often framed in religious or ideological terms, but the truth of the matter is that their roots lie in the struggle for influence and control in a region reshaped by external powers.

Destroying the Narrative: Blame and Responsibility

Again, do we want to be ‘right,’ or do we want to be ‘accurate?’ In contemporary discourse, it is common to see blame placed on specific actors in the Middle East, such as Israel, Palestine, or various governments and militant groups. However, this approach largely overlooks the broader historical context that has shaped the region’s current challenges. In fact, I’ll say this another way: blaming the fire for the destruction ignores the role of those who set the fire in the first place. In other words, if you want to fix the problem, you have to examine the root of that problem objectively.

The West’s role in the Middle East’s instability is undeniable. The dismantling of the Ottoman Empire, the arbitrary drawing of borders, and the imposition of foreign governance systems for personal or monetary gain have all contributed to the region’s ongoing conflicts. Accordingly, and in the spirit of cause and effect, these historical actions have had a cascading effect, influencing everything from economic instability to the rise of extremist ideologies.

Your Leadership Lesson: Understanding Historical Context and Assessing Long-Term Impact

Individually or organizationally, it is vital for leaders to recognize that the decisions they make today can have far-reaching consequences, often beyond what is immediately apparent or understood. The situation in the Middle East is merely one powerful example of the importance of thoroughly examining the context and potential ramifications of a decision before taking action. The arbitrary borders drawn by colonial powers after World War I, without any regard for the region’s complex social fabric, have led to a century of conflict and instability. In many ways, this example clearly demonstrates the need for leaders to consider not only the immediate outcomes of their decisions but also how those decisions will shape the future because it sure has turned into a threat for both the French and the British today.

Similarly, I would argue that leaders must resist the temptation to focus solely on present challenges without understanding their deeper roots. A superficial approach to problem-solving often leads to actions that exacerbate existing issues rather than resolve them. By taking the time to understand the historical and contextual elements of the problem, leaders can make more informed decisions that address the underlying causes of problems, leading to more sustainable and effective solutions. In leadership, the ability to foresee and mitigate long-term consequences is not just a skill—it’s a responsibility. Of course, the ability to do so seems rather rare, but that is also why those who understand ‘strategic forecasting’ can be so valuable.

Final Thoughts

The turmoil in the Middle East is not just a historical case study; it is a powerful lesson in leadership. The cascading effects of decisions made without a deep understanding of the region’s history and complexities have led to enduring conflicts and instability. While absolutely sad and unfortunate, it was entirely predictable. After all, what else would you expect when two people who dislike each other are forced to live together?

For leaders today, either individually or organizationally, this example demonstrates the critical importance of informed decision-making. Leaders must go beyond surface-level analysis, recognizing that their decisions and actions can have profound, long-lasting impacts. By thoroughly examining information objectively, proactively limiting Epistemic Rigidity, and exploring the many potential ramifications, leaders can avoid the pitfalls of short-term thinking and instead foster outcomes that contribute to long-term stability and success.

The past teaches us that leadership is not just about addressing the problems of today but about understanding the roots of those problems to prevent them from recurring in the future. Understand that our decisions reverberate across time and space, so the ability to anticipate and mitigate unintended consequences is not just prudent—it is essential. REAL leadership demands a commitment to this deeper level of understanding, ensuring that the choices we make today build a more secure and prosperous future.

If you would like to connect some dots on this topic, you might explore The Adversity Nexus Theory