Beyond the Told

by Dr. David M Robertson

Unveiling Historical Patterns

Advertisements

History often appears to unfold in repeating patterns, cycles marked by economic upheavals, transformative wars, and relative calm and growth periods. By analyzing these cycles with the help of AI-driven technology, we can refine and validate these patterns, providing a framework for understanding the past and predicting the future. This article delves into historical cycles from the Italian Wars to World War II, integrating economic, medical, and technological shifts while offering insights into what might lie ahead.

The Historical Model

While the cycle precedes the following, we will begin with the Italian Wars (1494–1559) to begin this examination, representing a time when Europe underwent significant transformations. Economic upheaval during this period stemmed from the rise of banking families like the Medici and a shift in trade routes due to Ottoman dominance and the Age of Exploration. The wars involved multiple European powers and introduced modern state-based militaries, beginning a new era of geopolitics and warfare. Innovations such as field surgery by Ambroise Paré and the widespread use of gunpowder artillery reshaped both medicine and military strategy. This was followed by approximately 70 years of calm, during which Europe consolidated economically and culturally flourished in the late Renaissance.

The Thirty Years’ War (1618–1648) emerged as the next major inflection point, driven by economic strains like the Price Revolution caused by an influx of New World silver. This proto-globalization fueled inflation and disrupted established economic orders. The war itself, rooted in religious and political rivalries, devastated much of Europe and transformed military organization, introducing professional standing armies and logistical advancements. Out of this devastation came the Peace of Westphalia, establishing the modern nation-state system and a period of relative stability lasting until the late 1700s.

It should be noted that during the latter half of this period, the calm and growth phase saw the emergence of the Enlightenment, a new wave of philosophical and political thought that would later influence revolutionary movements. The industrializing economies of Britain and France began to expand, while trade networks grew in the wake of these earlier conflicts. This period saw advances in early capitalism and commerce, and technological and political structures began stabilizing.

This span of relative peace, from the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 to the Revolutionary War in 1775, fits the pattern of economic upheaval, conflict, and recovery, with the Enlightenment and the early stages of industrialization laying the foundations for the next cycle.

Fast-forward to the Revolutionary War (1775–1783), where colonial taxation, trade restrictions, and early industrialization catalyzed economic upheaval. The conflict heralded the rise of nation-states and introduced innovations like smallpox inoculation and guerilla tactics. A calmer post-war period followed, underpinned by the Industrial Revolution and westward expansion in the United States, setting the stage for the next cycle.

The Civil War (1861–1865) reflected tensions between industrialization and entrenched systems like slavery. It showcased the concept of total war, leveraging railroads, telegraphs, and rifled weaponry. Advances in battlefield medicine, including triage and anesthetics, arose from necessity. The post-war Reconstruction period and the subsequent Gilded Age marked another 70 years of relative calm.

Finally, World War II (1939–1945) was preceded by the Great Depression, a seismic economic shift that reshaped global financial systems. Mechanized warfare, nuclear weapons, and the introduction of antibiotics like penicillin revolutionized the military and medical fields. The subsequent economic boom and Cold War established a roughly 70-year period of recovery and stability.

Validating the Model

The cycles outlined—economic upheaval, global conflict, medical and technological advancement, and a period of calm—have occurred with striking regularity. Each phase lasts approximately 75–90 years, encompassing 10–20 years of economic disruption, 5–10 years of conflict, and 60–70 years of recovery and growth. AI-driven analysis has validated the broad structure of this model while refining its details.

Moreover, integrating Sir John Glubb’s insights into the fate of empires or Ray Dalio’s broader 250-year dominance cycle—spanning Dutch, British, and American eras of global power—adds interesting layers of predictive insight. By these measures, the dominance of the United States will likely not last forever. In fact, by the nearest timelines, our dominance may wane around 2045–2050, potentially giving way to a multi-polar world led by nations like China or India or by technological coalitions transcending national boundaries.

Current Cycle and Predictions

We are now firmly in the economic upheaval phase, which began with the 2008 financial crisis. Transformative technologies like AI, robotics, blockchain, and the decentralization of finance have characterized this period. Labor systems are shifting as automation disrupts traditional industries, while resource competition adds further strain. These pressures are eerily similar to past economic precursors of global conflict.

If the model holds, the next major conflict will be underway between 2025 and 2040. This war is likely to differ fundamentally from past conflicts, dominated by cyber warfare, AI-driven autonomous weapons, drone swarms, and the militarization of space. Geopolitical tensions between the United States and its allies and nations like China and Russia have already begun to escalate, with contested areas such as Taiwan and the Arctic serving as potential flashpoints.

Indeed, the Arctic may be a flashpoint or hot zone to consider. However, since 1999, the model has emphatically suggested that there will be four “hot zones” and five major “Axis powers.” The hot zones are the Baltics, the Middle East through the Horn of Africa, the South China Sea, and the United States. The Axis powers include China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela – along with their proxies. This does not suggest that these are the only areas or players to consider. Instead, these are merely going to be the focus and heaviest hit. Of course, looking at recent news demonstrates that this model might not be too far off.

The Silver Lining: Transformation and Growth

While this potential conflict raises concerns, these patterns suggest that transformative advancements often arise from such periods. Post-war eras have historically yielded breakthroughs in medicine, technology, and governance. The coming decades could bring AI-driven healthcare, genetic therapies, sustainable energy solutions, and revolutionary approaches to governance and economics.

Of course, these patterns will likely continue. By 2040–2070, the world may enter another relative calm and growth phase, marked by stabilization and, perhaps, a new globally dominant nation. This era could witness the maturation of technologies currently in their infancy, such as nuclear fusion, quantum computing, and life-extension science.

Looking Further Ahead

If the cycles continue to hold, the next great period of economic upheaval could begin in the early 2100s, followed by a transformative conflict around 2110–2125. This suggests a recurring rhythm of challenge and progress, driven by humanity’s ingenuity and adaptability. I guess only time will tell.

Final Thoughts

As they say, history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. The patterns identified in this model, refined through AI analysis, serve as a cautionary and hopeful framework. While the coming years may bring turbulence, they also hold the promise of extraordinary transformation. By understanding these cycles, we can better navigate the challenges ahead and prepare for a brighter future.

What starts in adversity typically ends in adversity. Learn more by examining my Adversity Nexus Theory.

Updated: 11/24/2024

NOTE: This model has been updated to reflect slight timeline improvements and context in the patterns and reduce the original draft’s complexities.

Advertisements